Emergence and dynamics of influenza super-strains
Identifieur interne : 000C67 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000C66; suivant : 000C68Emergence and dynamics of influenza super-strains
Auteurs : Brian J. Coburn [États-Unis] ; Chris Cosner [États-Unis] ; Shigui Ruan [États-Unis]Source :
- BMC Public Health [ 1471-2458 ] ; 2011.
Abstract
Influenza super-strains can emerge through recombination of strains from birds, pigs, and humans. However, once a new recombinant strain emerges, it is not clear whether the strain is capable of sustaining an outbreak. In certain cases, such strains have caused major influenza pandemics.
Here we develop a multi-host (i.e., birds, pigs, and humans) and multi-strain model of influenza to analyze the outcome of emergent strains. In the model, pigs act as “mixing vessels” for avian and human strains and can produce super-strains from genetic recombination.
We find that epidemiological outcomes are predicted by three factors: (i) contact between pigs and humans, (ii) transmissibility of the super-strain in humans, and (iii) transmissibility from pigs to humans. Specifically, outbreaks will reoccur when the super-strain infections are less frequent between humans (e.g., R
Our results provide insights on the effect of species interactions on the dynamics of influenza super-strains. Counter intuitively, epidemics may occur in humans even if the transmissibility of a super-strain is low. Surprisingly, our modeling shows strains that have generated past epidemics (e.g., H1N1) could resurge decades after they have apparently disappeared.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-S1-S6
PubMed: 21356135
PubMed Central: 3317579
Affiliations:
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Coburn</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="I1">Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience & Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 10940 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1450, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience & Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 10940 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1450, Los Angeles, CA 90024</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cosner, Chris" sort="Cosner, Chris" uniqKey="Cosner C" first="Chris" last="Cosner">Chris Cosner</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="I2">Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ruan, Shigui" sort="Ruan, Shigui" uniqKey="Ruan S" first="Shigui" last="Ruan">Shigui Ruan</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="I2">Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">21356135</idno><idno type="pmc">3317579</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3317579</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3317579</idno><idno type="doi">10.1186/1471-2458-11-S1-S6</idno><date when="2011">2011</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000912</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000912</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000912</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000912</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000834</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000834</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000623</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000623</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000623</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000C72</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000C67</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000C67</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Emergence and dynamics of influenza super-strains</title><author><name sortKey="Coburn, Brian J" sort="Coburn, Brian J" uniqKey="Coburn B" first="Brian J" last="Coburn">Brian J. Coburn</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="I1">Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience & Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 10940 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1450, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience & Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 10940 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1450, Los Angeles, CA 90024</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cosner, Chris" sort="Cosner, Chris" uniqKey="Cosner C" first="Chris" last="Cosner">Chris Cosner</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="I2">Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ruan, Shigui" sort="Ruan, Shigui" uniqKey="Ruan S" first="Shigui" last="Ruan">Shigui Ruan</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="I2">Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMC Public Health</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2458</idno><imprint><date when="2011">2011</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Influenza super-strains can emerge through recombination of strains from birds, pigs, and humans. However, once a new recombinant strain emerges, it is not clear whether the strain is capable of sustaining an outbreak. In certain cases, such strains have caused major influenza pandemics.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Here we develop a multi-host (i.e., birds, pigs, and humans) and multi-strain model of influenza to analyze the outcome of emergent strains. In the model, pigs act as “mixing vessels” for avian and human strains and can produce super-strains from genetic recombination.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>We find that epidemiological outcomes are predicted by three factors: (i) contact between pigs and humans, (ii) transmissibility of the super-strain in humans, and (iii) transmissibility from pigs to humans. Specifically, outbreaks will reoccur when the super-strain infections are less frequent between humans (e.g., R<italic><sub>0</sub></italic>=1.4) but frequent from pigs to humans, and a large-scale outbreak followed by successive dampening outbreaks will occur when super-strain infections are frequent between humans (e.g., R<italic><sub>0</sub></italic>=2.3). The average time between the initial outbreak and the first resurgence varies from 41 to 82 years. We determine the largest outbreak will occur when 2.3 <<italic>R<sub>0</sub></italic> < 3.8 and the highest cumulative infections occur when 0 <<italic>R<sub>0</sub></italic> < 3.0 and is dependent on the frequency of pig-to-human infections for lower R<sub>0</sub> values (0 <<italic>R<sub>0</sub></italic> < 1.9).</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our results provide insights on the effect of species interactions on the dynamics of influenza super-strains. Counter intuitively, epidemics may occur in humans even if the transmissibility of a super-strain is low. Surprisingly, our modeling shows strains that have generated past epidemics (e.g., H1N1) could resurge decades after they have apparently disappeared.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Webby, Rj" uniqKey="Webby R">RJ Webby</name></author><author><name sortKey="Webster, Rg" uniqKey="Webster R">RG Webster</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wuethrich, B" uniqKey="Wuethrich B">B Wuethrich</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Myers, Kp" uniqKey="Myers K">KP Myers</name></author><author><name sortKey="Olsen, Cw" uniqKey="Olsen C">CW Olsen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Setterquist, Sf" uniqKey="Setterquist S">SF Setterquist</name></author><author><name sortKey="Capuano, Aw" uniqKey="Capuano A">AW Capuano</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donham, Kj" uniqKey="Donham K">KJ Donham</name></author><author><name 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sortKey="Coburn, Brian J" sort="Coburn, Brian J" uniqKey="Coburn B" first="Brian J" last="Coburn">Brian J. Coburn</name></region><name sortKey="Cosner, Chris" sort="Cosner, Chris" uniqKey="Cosner C" first="Chris" last="Cosner">Chris Cosner</name><name sortKey="Ruan, Shigui" sort="Ruan, Shigui" uniqKey="Ruan S" first="Shigui" last="Ruan">Shigui Ruan</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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